Super Bowl 2023 odds and projections before NFL Week 12: Every teams playoff chances

Publish date: 2024-06-24

Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.

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This week we’re doing something a bit different, by showing the projected chances of winning the Super Bowl from preseason (W1), before Week 6 (W6) and now (W12) for the top 15 teams in the projections.

Super Bowl projections

teamW1W6W12

15.7%

16.0%

17.8%

15.2%

12.2%

15.4%

10.0%

19.7%

13.9%

3.1%

4.8%

8.4%

8.2%

7.3%

7.9%

2.6%

13.0%

7.9%

4.8%

4.0%

7.8%

3.4%

2.2%

7.0%

1.4%

3.1%

3.4%

9.0%

5.6%

2.4%

0.1%

0.1%

1.9%

2.1%

0.9%

1.7%

3.2%

2.3%

0.8%

2.3%

0.3%

0.7%

1.4%

0.8%

0.6%

Below is the same format, but for the chances for every team to make the playoffs.

Playoff projections

teamW1W6W12

92.2%

99.0%

100.0%

59.8%

92.4%

99.7%

84.4%

99.6%

99.3%

89.5%

96.0%

99.2%

81.1%

88.2%

98.6%

46.9%

96.3%

95.5%

70.1%

66.9%

94.8%

71.4%

72.5%

93.3%

43.9%

69.3%

90.3%

52.4%

16.3%

71.8%

46.1%

49.4%

68.9%

5.3%

15.8%

62.8%

65.4%

71.0%

55.9%

36.7%

17.8%

55.3%

50.5%

52.7%

40.1%

77.1%

81.2%

36.4%

6.2%

55.4%

35.9%

8.9%

44.8%

27.3%

37.0%

48.9%

24.5%

46.2%

53.0%

15.7%

23.7%

0.3%

13.3%

24.1%

26.7%

11.7%

71.9%

29.8%

2.6%

11.4%

12.6%

2.3%

46.3%

5.7%

2.2%

14.0%

1.5%

1.1%

29.1%

6.4%

0.6%

41.1%

19.7%

0.4%

27.1%

1.8%

0.4%

27.7%

0.3%

0.09%

0.2%

1.2%

0.06%

12.6%

7.7%

0.02%

(Photo of Jalen Hurts: Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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