Fantasy football IDP postseason slams and shams: Making the most of matchups
It’s the most wonderful time of the year. No, not Christmas. Well, that too. Don’t worry about shopping for your favorite IDP analyst (I mean me — if I’m not your favorite, then Humbug to you sir!), cash is fine.
It’s the IDP playoffs. After 14 grueling weeks, you’ve made it into the postseason tournament. Win two or three more games and you will be crowned champion. Bring home the trophy. Maybe win a few bucks. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
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Of course, winning the championship is easier said than done. There are no gimme matchups from here out. Every lineup decision is vitally important. Every point can be the difference between victory and defeat. Any and every edge has to be considered. And matchups are absolutely one of those considerations.
This isn’t to say that you should absolutely start a player just because he has a nice stretch of matchups over the next few weeks. Or that you should absolutely sit a player just because his matchups are bad — Dallas edge rusher Micah Parsons has bottom five matchups in Week 15 and Week 16, but he’s also Micah freaking Parsons!
However, by examining fantasy points allowed to the respective IDP positions to this point in the season, we can identify some players with a favorable stretch who may be available on many waiver wires — and some bigger names who could be set to slump at the worst possible time.
Fantasy points allowed courtesy of My Fantasy League
The Good Guys
Bud Dupree – DE, ATL: This is admittedly a deep-league play, and one that carries some risk. But Dupree showed with seven stops and two sacks in a plus matchup with the Jets in Week 13 that he can take advantage of a Week 15 trip to face the Carolina Panthers and a home tilt in Week 17 with the Buffalo Bills.
Jonathan Greenard – DE, HOU: After a two-sack outing against the Jets last week, Greenard quietly ranks inside the Top 15 defensive linemen for the season. As it happens, the Texans are the only team in the league that faces opponents that rank inside the Top 10 in fantasy points per game allowed to defensive ends all three weeks of the playoffs.
Byron Young – DE, LAR: Young picked up his sixth sack of 2023 last week and is creeping up on 50 total tackles for the season. The rookie’s Week 16 home date with a Saints team allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to defensive ends is a downer, but Top 5 matchups with Washington (Week 15) and the New York Giants (Week 17) are another story.
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Derrick Barnes – LB, DET: Barnes’ snap count has bounced around some this season, but he was on the field for 87 percent of the defensive snaps last week against the Chicago Bears. Both he and Alex Anzalone draw a trio of Top 10 fantasy matchups for linebackers in the playoffs, starting with a Denver Broncos team that leads the league in fantasy points given up to the position.
Zach Cunningham – LB, PHI: Keep an eye on the snap shares for Cunningham, Nicholas Morrow and even Shaquille Leonard against the Seahawks in Week 15. Assuming Cunningham retains the role he’s had most of the season, he’s the best bet to be productive in favorable matchups with the New York Giants (Week 16) and Arizona Cardinals (Week 17).
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – LB, CLE: The linebacker snap shares in Cleveland have been dizzying at times, but Owusu-Koramoah appears to have settled into a three-down role. A Championship Week matchup with the Jets in Week 17 is no bueno, but Owusu-Koramoah gets Top 5 tilts with the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans ahead of that.
Tony Adams – S, NYJ: If you want to know which weeks to start Adams, just ask me — if he’s on my bench he’ll post a solid stat line for a waiver pickup. Adams has two swings at being helpful to IDP managers in the playoffs — the Miami Dolphins (Week 15) and Cleveland Browns (Week 17) — and both are Top 3 fantasy matchups for safeties.
Markquese Bell – S, DAL: It’s a little off to include Bell with the safeties — he’s essentially a linebacker now. But the Cowboys draw three Top 10 matchups for safeties in the playoffs, and frankly it shouldn’t be that hard to justify starting an off-ball linebacker who has positional eligibility as a safety with most IDP providers.
Josh Metellus – S, MIN: The Vikings have been playing three-safety looks almost exclusively in recent weeks, and both Metellus and Camryn Bynum have been productive. Add in a trio of favorable fantasy matchups with the Bengals, Lions and Packers in the IDP postseason, and you have the recipe for a strong finish to the season.
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The Bad Guys
Trey Hendrickson – DE, CIN: Hendrickson is up to 13.5 sacks for the season and is a Top 10 fantasy defensive lineman in many scoring systems. But the veteran edge rusher has never been a player who posted big tackle numbers, and he draws bottom 10 matchups with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs.
Harold Landry – DE, TEN: Landry was having a relatively quiet year until he exploded for three sacks against the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. That outburst will make Landry popular on waiver wires this week, but matchups with the Houston Texans (24th in fantasy points given up to defensive ends) in Weeks 15 and 17 could lead to the 27-year-old fading back into the IDP background.
Kayvon Thibodeaux – DE, NYG: It can be argued that Thibodeaux has earned matchup-proof status — he’s eighth for the season in fantasy points and has 11.5 sacks for the season. But Thibodeaux also faces two teams in the final three weeks that rank in the bottom five in terms of fantasy points surrendered to defensive ends. Temper expectations.
Blake Cashman – LB, HOU: Cashman has been a waiver wire hero for many IDP managers this season. And Houston’s Week 16 trip to Cleveland is a solid IDP matchup for linebackers. But sandwiched around it are two games with a Tennessee Titans team that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to linebackers in 2023.
Ivan Pace – LB, MIN: Like Cashman, Pace has been a waiver wire wonder who likely helped get quite a few IDP squads into the playoffs. But the youngster’s playoff schedule contains two terrible matchups — the Cincinnati Bengals (Week 15) and Green Bay Packers (Week 17) are two worst fantasy matchups for linebackers this season.
Bobby Wagner – LB, SEA: If it makes you feel any better, it pains me to even have to include Wagner, but the reality is that while Wagner is a Top 10 linebacker for the season, he has been a little up-and-down, and tilts with the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers in Weeks 16 and 17 are most assuredly of the “down” variety.
Minkah Fitzpatrick – S, PIT: Fitzpatrick has already been a better NFL player than IDP option in 2023 — he ranks outside the Top 30 safeties for the season in fantasy points per game. Adding in unfavorable fantasy matchups with the Indianapolis Colts (Week 15) and Seattle Seahawks (Week 17) won’t help matters any.
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Amani Hooker – S, TEN: With Kevin Byard now in Philadelphia, Hooker is the Titans’ lone full-time safety, and he has been a Top 20 fantasy option over the past three weeks. Unfortunately, he’s also saddled with three straight bottom 10 IDP matchups over the next three weeks, so it’s probably wise to look elsewhere.
Derwin James – S, LAC: This is another one that fantasy managers don’t want to see, especially after James rebounded from something of a slow start to rise to seventh in fantasy points among safeties for the season. A Week 16 home date with the Bills is a solid IDP matchup, but the matchups sandwiched around it (AFC West tilts with the Raiders and Broncos) aren’t so much.
Gary Davenport (“The Godfather of IDP”) is the fantasy football industry’s leading expert on Individual Defensive Player Leagues. A two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year, you can follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
(Photo of Jonathan Greenard: Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports)
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