49ers, Ravens set for historically strong matchup on Christmas night
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The San Francisco 49ers will host the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas night, and the numbers indicate it’s one of the best matchups in NFL regular-season history.
Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), a team efficiency metric that considers strength of schedule, has expanded its database back to 1981. Pitted against all teams since then, the 49ers rank No. 3 and the Ravens rank No. 11 in DVOA. By combined team percentages, only the 2007 Week 9 game between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts featured a more statistically titillating matchup post-Week 7 than the one coming to Levi’s Stadium on Christmas night.
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Tom Brady’s Patriots prevailed over Peyton Manning’s Colts, 24-20, in that one. How will Monday night’s game featuring the 49ers’ Brock Purdy and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, the current betting favorites for the NFL’s MVP award, play out?
Here’s a breakdown of the DVOA matchup. Higher positive percentages indicate better performance on offense and special teams, while lower negative percentages indicate better performance on defense.
Ravens vs. 49ers: Efficiency matchup
| Phase | Ravens DVOA | Rk | 49ers DVOA | Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | +17.4% | #4 | +36.9% | #1 |
Pass offense | +22.7% | #13 | +70.5% | #1 |
Run offense | +25.5% | #1 | +17.3% | #3 |
Defense | -18.8% | #2 | -11.4% | #4 |
Pass defense | -21.2% | #2 | -13.2% | #4 |
Run defense | -14.6% | #8 | -7.9% | #18 |
Special teams | +2.7% | #8 | -1.6% | #24 |
Overall | +38.8% | #2 | +46.7% | #1 |
There are three glaring differences between them in that table. Two of them favor the Ravens, but the third certainly skews toward the 49ers.
Baltimore’s No. 1 rushing offense will square off against a 49ers run defense that ranks No. 18 and is coming off an ugly performance in Arizona. The Cardinals capitalized on 16 missed tackles from the 49ers to rack up 234 yards on 30 carries — 7.8 yards per rush — against them.
Thursday, edge rusher Nick Bosa sounded confident the 49ers could tighten up their run defense for this huge challenge against Jackson and lead Ravens running back Gus Edwards, a 238-pounder who’s replaced the injured Keaton Mitchell as Baltimore’s first stringer.
“Obviously, everybody’s grinding this time of year,” Bosa said. “You feel different each week. There’s definitely a few plays last week that we’d like to have back, and it would have looked a lot better on the stat sheet. But we watched the tape, and we don’t feel it was as bad as the stat sheet says. So we’re just on to the next and learning from that the best we can.”
The Ravens’ second pronounced advantage comes on special teams, where they rank No. 8 in DVOA while the 49ers — who are missing injured top return man Ray-Ray McCloud III — are mired down at No. 24.
Perennial All-Pro kicker Justin Tucker beat the 49ers with a late field goal when these two teams last faced each other in 2019. Earlier this month, Baltimore beat the Los Angeles Rams in overtime when Ravens receiver Tylan Wallace returned a punt 76 yards for a touchdown — a walk-off winner. The 49ers haven’t returned a punt for a touchdown since 2011, when Ted Ginn Jr. scored in the season opener against the Seattle Seahawks.
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So what 49ers edge can counteract those supposed disadvantages?
The answer lies in their offense, which — according to DVOA — has been performing a whopping 36.9 percent above the NFL average. Only two Brady-led Patriots teams have scored higher through 14 games.
San Francisco #49ers #FTTB are also the No. 3 offense ever tracked by DVOA thru 14 games. Remember that these numbers are adjusted for opponent and era, which is how the teams from 1984 and 1988 can stand side by side with recent teams. pic.twitter.com/43ljmibYeE
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) December 18, 2023
For further perspective: The 49ers offense is registering a DVOA mark over twice as much above league average than the Ravens — even though Baltimore’s offense ranks No. 4 in the NFL.
A focus, then, will be on Purdy and his deep arsenal of skill-position weapons working against the Ravens defense, which leads the NFL with 50 sacks.
“I think it’s a big game for everybody because there’s not just one way in particular (in which the Ravens excel),” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday. “They lead the league in sacks, right away you think about our O-line. That is true because they have good pass rushers. But also, that has a lot to do with how good our receivers do to get into their spots and getting open, Brock to get it in the right spots, guys not getting rerouted so they can’t get there in time. So, when you play a sound, good defense with good players all over, it’s a little bit of everything.”
Baltimore safety Kyle Hamilton, who’s 6-foot-4, is a particularly versatile player who might be well-suited for giving the 49ers’ adaptable set of weapons, highlighted by running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Deebo Samuel, a challenge. Hamilton has lined up at multiple positions. He’s notched two interceptions, three sacks and 76 tackles.
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“Watching him in their scheme and just seeing how good of a football player he is — anytime you’re that long and you can run gives you a bunch of advantages,” Shanahan said. “But he also fits into their mentality with how physical he plays and has the size to do a lot of things, but also has the feet and length to cover.”
Baltimore’s defensive mentality is predicated on striking early.
“They’re the No. 1 defense in the first quarter in the NFL because they surprise you with how they hit you in the face,” 49ers tight end George Kittle said Friday. “I respect the hell out of that.”
The 49ers seem especially focused on Ravens linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, who seem to mirror 49ers stars Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw at the position.
“They remind us of our linebackers,” Purdy said Friday, “in terms of the intensity and how they fly around.”
Said Shanahan: “I think they’re the most comparable to our guys that I’ve seen this year and a couple years. To me, those two guys make the defense go. They’re big. They can run and they can hit. Not just because they’re big, but because their intentions are that way. You can tell they like playing football. They’re very smart players, too. They’re good in coverage. They’re two of the better zone droppers in the league and two of the better man-to-man guys also.
“So, they’re as good as it gets.”
49ers vs. Ravens predictions
| Winner | Score | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
Matt Barrows |  | 27-26 | 11-3 |
David Lombardi | | 27-24 | 11-3 |
Matt Barrows: The 49ers get up — way up — for marquee matchups. Just ask the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. I’m not expecting a Week 5- or Week 13-like blowout in this one, however, because the Ravens’ offensive strength, their running game, happens to correlate with a 49ers weakness considering that defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave aren’t 100 percent. If the Ravens can run the ball, they can keep the game close. This one might come down to a Tucker or Jake Moody field goal. You probably can tell which guy I’ve picked.
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David Lombardi: Hargrave returned to practice Friday, which should mean a nice boost for the 49ers. But this game might come down to what the 49ers have zeroed in on: linebacker play. There will be several excellent players on the field at the position. But Warner and Greenlaw, playing on their home field a week removed from a shoddy performance at Arizona, will prevail.
(Photos of Nick Bosa and Gus Edwards: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today and Mike Carlson / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.
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